This week, the media in the region reported on several important diplomatic developments, such as Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov’s tour of Central Asia, Kazakhstani PM Olzhas Bektenov’s visit to Moscow, the sixth China-Central Asia Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, and President Japarov’s official visit to Bahrain. They also covered several critical energy stories like Uzbekistan’s plans to import more Russian gas while simultaneously announcing the first monthly increase in gas production in 3.5 years, Kazakhstan fining the Tengiz oil field operator $1.4 million amid a strike at the field, Kazakhstan hinting it will prioritize its national interest over OPEC+ plans when it comes to oil production, and Kazakhstan announcing it will commence exploring various new gas deposits. In addition, several outlets noted Uzbekistan’s plans to privatise multiple state enterprises.
The National Leader of the Turkmen People, Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, visited Samarkand for talks with President Mirziyoyev. Source: Zamin.uz
Diplomatic Events:
Uzbekistani President Shavkat Mirziyoyev held talks with the National Leader of the Turkmen People, Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, in Samarkand on April 24 (The Caspian Post). They discussed strengthening the partnership between their countries and increasing political, economic, trade, energy, and transport cooperation, such as the proposed “Shavat-Dashoguz” border trade zone (UZ Daily). They praised the success of recent intergovernmental commission and business council meetings. In addition, they explored options to increase annual bilateral trade from $1.1 billion in 2024 to $2 billion in the coming years. They also discussed preparations for the upcoming Central Asia Plus summit and the seventh Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Heads of State, which will be hosted in Tashkent. The leaders also agreed to hold the third regional forum and Turkmen cultural days in Khiva before touring the “Eternal City” park in the Silk Road Samarkand International Tourist Centre (UZ Daily).
Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov also met with Kyrgyzstani President Sadyr Japarov, in Issyk Kul on April 22 (24.kg). The two leaders explored bilateral trade relations and numerous regional initiatives. They discussed the establishment of a Kyrgyzstani-Turkmenistani Development Fund (24.kg). They also visited the Rukh-Ordo Cultural Center in Cholpon-Ata (24.kg) before watching several equestrian games in Baktuu‑Dolonotu and touring the Kyrgyz Aiyly ethnocomplex (24.kg).
For the last leg of his regional tour, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov visited Turkistan, where he met Kazakhstani President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on April 21 as part of his tour of Central Asia (Tengri News). Both leaders highlighted the development of cooperation between their countries. They discussed increasing collaboration, including raising bilateral trade to $1 billion. Specifically, they explored cooperation in the gas sector, including the development of the Galkynysh gas field, the Turgundi-Herat-Kandahar-Spin Boldak railway, and the Turkmenbashi-Garabogaz-Kazakhstan motorway. The Galkynysh field is the second largest gas field in the world, with 26.2 trillion cubic meters of gas (Kursiv). Turkmengaz began developing the field in 2009 in collaboration with CNPC, LG International Corp., Hyundai Engineering, Petrofac, and Gulf Oil & Gas FZE. In 2013, China and Turkmenistan launched a production facility to produce commercial gas at the field. So far, Turkmenistan has invested $10 billion in the field, including an $8 billion loan from China. They have drilled 52 wells and are working on another 10. They also continue to look for further foreign investment to finish the development of the field, as well as the Yashlar and Garakel fields. Previously, it was reported that QazaqGaz and the UAE’s ADNOC would jointly explore and develop gas fields in Turkmenistan (Kursiv). Following their talks, the two leaders also toured several landmarks throughout the city.
Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov visited Turkistan, Kazakhstan, where he met President Tokayev. Source: Akorda
Kazakhstani Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov paid an official visit to Moscow last week (Kazinform). During his visit, he met with his Russian counterpart Mikhail Mishustin. They explored the implementation of various agreements and efforts to expand bilateral trade to $30 billion annually. They also discussed transport, energy, space, and agricultural cooperation. In 2024, trade rose by 3% to $27.8 billion. Bilateral agricultural trade remains vital to both countries. Due to the lifting of phytosanitary restrictions, agricultural trade grew by 4.5% to $3.8 billion last year. Regarding the North-South Corridor, both sides noted that traffic along the eastern section through Kazakhstan had increased to 2.4 million tons last year. Lastly, both Prime Ministers emphasised the Intergovernmental Commission for Cooperation’s role in resolving issues between their respective countries.
Kyrgyzstani President Sadyr Japarov visited Bahrain last week (24.kg). During his official visit, he held talks with Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa. The two leaders discussed political, trade, and investment cooperation. Following their deliberations, both countries signed a number of MoUs regarding economic cooperation, air travel, healthcare, cultural, industrial, and judicial cooperation (24.kg). President Japarov also met with the head of Bahrain’s Central Bank, Hassan Khalifa Al Jalahma, and proposed opening an Islamic bank in Kyrgyzstan with Bahrain’s cooperation (24.kg).
Kyrgyzstani President Sadyr Japarov paid an official visit to Bahrain last week. Source: 24.Kg
The sixth China-Central Asia Foreign Ministers’ Meeting took place in Almaty on April 26 (The Astana Times). Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu, China’s Wang Yi, Kyrgyzstan’s Zheenbek Kulubaev, Tajikistan’s Sirojiddin Mukhriddin, Uzbekistan’s Bakhtiyor Saidov, and a representative of Turkmenistan attended the meeting. The Foreign Ministers discussed boosting trade, improving regional connectivity, and promoting sustainable and green development. They discussed ways to expand the China-Central Asia format and adopted the Information Communiqué, reaffirming their commitment to deepening multilateral cooperation. The Kazakhstan-China Strategic Dialogue occurred on April 25, with both countries signing the memorandum of cooperation for 2026-2028.
The sixth China-Central Asia Foreign Ministers’ Meeting took place in Almaty on April 26. Source: Astana Times
On April 25, Afghanistan and Kazakhstan signed a protocol beginning the construction of the Turgundi-Herat-Kandahar-Spin Boldak railway (The Astana Times). They signed the agreement during the visit of Kazakhstani Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin to Kabul. The agreement between Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration and Afghanistan’s Ministry of Public Works details Kazakhstan’s participation in the project. Both countries also plan to conclude a logistics and transport cooperation agreement in the near future, outlining the project’s timeline and plans for a transport and logistics centre in Herat. The agreement also contains provisions for the establishment of a railway venture between Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan under the jurisdiction of the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC). Additionally, they expect to lay a fibre optic cable along the route to enable the development of digital infrastructure. The project is part of Kazakhstan’s efforts to improve connectivity with South Asia and access ports on the Indian Ocean. The Kazakhstani delegation also met with Afghan Minister of Civil Aviation and Transport Hamidullah Akhundzada to explore direct flights between the countries, the sale of Kazakhstani vehicles to Afghanistan, and the training of Afghan students in Kazakhstan.
During the visit of Kazakhstani Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin to Kabul, Afghanistan and Kazakhstan agreed to establish a joint technical commission to study Afghanistan’s mineral potential (The Astana Times). While meeting Afghan Minister of Mines and Petroleum Hidayatullah Badri, he thanked his Afghan counterparts for facilitating the fieldwork of Kazakhstani geologists. The minister also participated in the Kazakhstani-Afghan Business Forum, which 50 Kazakhstani companies attended, representing a range of economic sectors. The two countries also agreed to increase bilateral trade to $3 billion annually in the foreseeable future. The forum concluded with the signing of $140 million in commercial agreements.
Economic Forecasts:
In its latest economic update, the World Bank has projected economic growth of 4.7% in Central Asia for 2025-2026 (Daryo). In 2024, the region reported growth of 3.6%. Despite sluggish growth in neighbouring markets, increased domestic consumption, higher remittances, and wage growth buoyed the region’s economies. However, the report also noted that inflation remains a persistent problem. In February 2025, inflation rose to 5%, up from 3.6% in mid-2024. Despite increasing trade fragmentation, Central Asia’s growth rate remains relatively high compared to other regions. However, the World Bank recommended that the countries of the region continue to prioritise structural reforms urgently. Specifically, they recommend taking measures to enhance competition and innovation by reducing the dominance of state entities in the market, increasing access to finance, supporting research and development, and investing in human capital.
In March, consumer confidence rebounded slightly in Kazakhstan (Kursiv). The consumer confidence index rose slightly from its lowest value in the history of the survey from 93 to 95.3. The fact that the index remains below 100 indicates a preponderance of negative responses. While confidence in the conditions for large purchases recovered substantially, confidence in the economic situation overall continued to decline. Those who felt the economic situation would improve over the next year fell from 40% to 37%. Meanwhile, inflation estimates decreased slightly after four months of continuous growth. In March, 50.6% of people noted a strong increase in prices over the past month, particularly for some non-food products and services, compared to 55.1% in February. Meanwhile, those who experienced a surge in prices over the past year fell from 58.1% to 53.3%. People’s inflation expectations have increased moderately, while devaluation expectations in March for the next year soared from 59.4 to 65.1%. Nevertheless, those who felt their personal financial situation had improved in the past year rose slightly from 28% to 30.1%. However, those who noticed an improvement in their economic situation over the past month fell from 20.7% to 19.6%.
Analysts at Halyk Finance estimate that Kazakhstan will record GDP growth of 5.3% in 2025, 0.5% higher than the 4.8% growth witnessed last year (Kursiv). They based their estimate on the strong growth of 5.8% recorded in the first quarter and the rapid growth of the short-term economic indicator (SEI), which grew by 8.3%. The SEI reflects the change in production volumes in key economic sectors, representing 60% of Kazakhstani GDP. They noted that the construction and transportation sectors led the way, with others, such as the industrial and trade sectors, posting more modest growth. The state’s share of capital investments rose 2.6 times to 22%, demonstrating the extent to which current growth relies on state support. While oil production continued to grow, oil exports decreased by 21% in monetary terms. Nevertheless, they expect economic growth to be sustained by budgetary support and an increase in oil exports. However, the downward pressure on oil prices could lead to this forecast being revised in the coming months. On the other hand, the Kazakhstani government expects GDP growth of 5.6% this year.
Investment:
The South Korean Company Daewoo Engineering & Construction has signed a $700 million agreement with Turkmenistan’s state chemical company Turkmenhimiya to construct a fertiliser plant in Türkmenabat (Daryo). Both parties signed the agreement in Seoul on April 18, during the visit to South Korea of Turkmenistan’s Deputy Prime Minister for Construction and Industry, Baymyrat Annamammedov. This agreement marks a significant step in the company’s efforts to increase its presence in Central Asia. The plant will process phosphate rock and produce 350000 tons of phosphate fertiliser and 100000 tons of ammonium sulphate annually.
Uzbekistan received $8.7 billion in foreign investments in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 20% compared to the same period last year (Daryo). Most of the investments were in significant metallurgical, energy, pharmaceutical, agriculture, water management, and transport projects. By the end of 2025, Uzbekistan hopes to attract $42 billion in foreign investment. In 2025, Uzbekistan also plans to privatise several major state companies, including UMS, UzAuto, and several power plants (Kun). Overall, Uzbekistan will auction shares in 29 state-owned entities following a presidential decree to improve the efficiency of state companies and attract foreign investment through privatisation. The Agency for State Asset Management and the Ministry of Economy and Finance are also developing a strategy for reforming and privatising state enterprises through 2030.
Kyrgyzstan’s Prime Minister Adylbek Kasymaliev attended the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C. (24.kg). He concluded several critical investment agreements worth $389.31 million during his visit. The agreements cover projects concerning regional development, healthcare, education, water management, energy infrastructure, and support for SMEs. For instance, $58.25 million has been allocated towards the 220 kilowatt Tamga-Karakol Power Transmission Line, $45.11 million to the mechanisation of agriculture, $25 million to education, and $120 million to SME support.
Energy:
Kazakhstani Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov has revealed that Uzbekistan plans to increase gas imports from Russia through Kazakhstan (Kun). According to his statement, Uzbekistan aims to increase deliveries from Russia to 11 billion cubic metres annually by 2038. Uzbekistan began importing natural gas from Russia in 2023 via the Central Asia–Center pipeline, receiving 1.28 billion cubic metres that year. In 2025, the country expects to receive 7.3 billion cubic metres. These transhipments are part of an agreement between Gazprom and Kazakhstan. In 2023, UzGasTrade signed a two-year contract with Gazprom for 2.8 billion cubic metres annually. However, Gazprom has yet to sign an agreement with Uzbekistan concerning the increased volumes. The minister also confirmed that Kazakhstan would facilitate the transfer of 36.2 billion cubic metres of Turkmenistani and Uzbekistani gas to China this year, the same volume as last year. The Kazakhstani government has also allocated $500 million to modernise the Central Asia-Centre pipeline by 2030, enabling it to transport 32 million cubic metres daily.
According to Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov, Kazakhstan will begin exploring several potentially significant natural gas deposits (Kursiv). The deposits in question are estimated to hold 535.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas. Specifically, QazaqGaz will invest $380 million across 15 deposits. So far, they have signed exploration agreements with KOR Oil for the Akkuduk and Shalkar sites, Chevron for the KT-III site and KazAzot for the Severny-2 site. Negotiations are ongoing with CNPC-AktobeMunaiGas regarding the Severny-1 site and Gas Solution concerning the Northern Samtyr and Southern Samtyr sites. The minister also reported that Kazakhstan produced 59 bcm in 2024 and expects upwards of 62.8 bcm in 2025. In the first quarter of the year, Kazakhstan produced 17.2 bcm. Meanwhile, commercial gas production reached 28.7 bcm in 2024. In 2025, they have planned for 29.4 bcm, with 7.3 bcm produced in the first quarter of the year. They anticipate gas consumption will rise from 21.2 bcm to 21.3 bcm this year. The minister also confirmed that Kazakhstan will complete 60 gas projects this year, expanding access from 12.6 to 12.8 million people (The Astana Times).
Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov informed Reuters last week that Kazakhstan would prioritise its national interest over the interests of OPEC+ regarding future oil production (Reuters). His statement could indicate that Kazakhstan does not intend to comply with OPEC's most recent round of production cuts and could possibly exit the group of oil-producing states. Since 2022, OPEC+ states have agreed to production cuts totalling 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd). Nevertheless, several states, including Kazakhstan, have refused to comply with the cuts. As reported earlier, Kazakhstan’s oil output has continued to surge. In March 2025, the country extracted 1.85 million bpd, up from an average of 1.74 million bpd in 2024. This figure is significantly higher than the country’s current OPEC+ quota of 1.468 bpd. Earlier in April, Saudi Arabia announced a deal to increase production by 411,000 bpd in May, putting further downward pressure on oil prices and non-compliant states. A new detailed compensation plan followed this deal, which Kazakhstan initially agreed to implement. However, given Kazakhstan's seeming refusal to comply, other members will likely increase production further in June to pressure Kazakhstan to adhere to the plan.
Kazakhstan has levied a $1.4 million fine against the Karachaganak oil and gas field operator, Karachaganak Petroleum Operating (KPO) (Kursiv). The environmental prosecutor’s office imposed the fine as they had exceeded previously agreed emissions limits. They accused the operator of emitting 264 tons of pollutants over the legal limit. Meanwhile, KPO has highlighted the efforts it has undertaken to reduce emissions. For instance, in 2019, they spent $25 million installing sensors to monitor emissions. According to the company’s reports from 2023, they reduced emissions by 2400 tons using surface pumps and by a further 530 tons through hydrocarbon-based fluids used to improve reservoir performance. They reported their emissions rate was 65 tons per 1000 tons of production, 14% below European targets and 44% below the global average.
Workers at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan have gone on strike, demanding a 50% pay rise (Kursiv). Kasibi Tandau, a contractor used by Tengizchevroil, the field operator, employs the workers. Transportation workers at Tengizchevroil have also joined the strike, demanding a 100% pay increase. In a letter to the heads of both companies, the workers claimed their current salaries do not cover their basic needs and that they would be motivated to work harder if the company increased their pay.
According to the National Statistics Agency of Uzbekistan, the production of gasoline, diesel fuel, natural gas, and electricity increased in March, while oil output fell (Kun). Crude oil production plummeted to 160,800 tons, a decrease of 10.22% from the same month last year. As a result, gasoline production dropped by 15.61% to 304000 tons. In the first quarter, gas production stood at 11.32 bcm, a drop of 2.32% compared to the same period in 2023. However, March saw the first monthly increase in gas production in 3.5 years. While diesel production fell by 40% in January and February due to maintenance at the Uzbekistan GTL plant, production in March reached 182,000 tons, down 14% compared to March 2024. Meanwhile, coal production grew by 25.2% to 1.21 million tons in the first quarter. Electricity generation fell by 0.33% from 21.66 billion to 21.58 billion kilowatt hours.
